Coin Tosses May Not Be 50/50
Flipping a coin is a popular way to make a decision. For instance, coin tosses are often used during sporting events. But in fact, flipping a coin to decide between two possible outcomes – heads or tails – has actually been around for thousands of years. The Wright brothers even used a coin toss in 1903 to decide who would attempt the first plane flight.Coin flipping is popular because almost everyone assumes it to be completely neutral. It is considered perfectly fair, because the odds of the coin landing on heads or tails are exactly 50/50.Or is it?Recently, researchers at the University of Amsterdam asked the question: “If you flip a coin and catch it in hand, what is the probability that it lands on the same side it started?” They then flipped a coin 350,757 times to find the answer.The researchers found that the side of the coin that was facing up at the start of the coin toss came back to the same position 50.8 percent of the time.For most of us, the fact that this number is not exactly 50 percent may seem insignificant. However, scientists believe that it shows “overwhelming evidence for a same-side bias.” In other words, if a coin starts heads up, it is more likely to land heads up.The study also revealed that there is no heads-tails bias. This means that it does not matter whether it is heads or tails facing up when the coin is tossed.So, keep this in mind the next time that you are part of a coin toss. You may wish to give yourself a slight advantage by peeking to see which side of the coin is facing up.
Questions:1. Why is flipping a coin considered a popular way to make decisions, and what historical example is given in the article?2. What question did researchers at the University of Amsterdam investigate, and how did they conduct their study?3. What percentage did the researchers find for the same-side bias in coin tosses, and what does this imply?4. What is the heads-tails bias, and what did the study reveal about it?5. How might the discovery of a same-side bias in coin tosses impact people's perceptions of the fairness of decision-making using coins? Do you think the slight advantage revealed in the study is significant enough to influence decisions made by coin tosses? Why or why not?
